Matt HealeyMonday,30 September 2013

The Snap:

Early Sunday morning the evangelical christian party of god linked funding the government to delaying the ACA yet again. In this case it was a 1 year delay and a repeal of the tax on medical devices. This may seam reasonable on first blush. It is not. The reason to delay is so the House can vote another 40 times to repeal it. The reason to eliminate the medical device tax is because that is the main source of funding for the law. So this is the same provision that was sent to the Senate and rejected last week.

The Download:

The most interesting aspect of this development, as of the writing of this post, is: What will Carnival Cruz do next? The Senate gets back into session at 2pm on Monday. I suspect that the Senate will take up the legislation then. The Senate can move very quickly if they want to. They could pass the House bill by unanimous consent and then go to lunch. Hey — once again, I said they COULD, not that they would. In all likely hood the Senate will move to strip the health care amendments from the bill. If this happens, we will all wait to see what Cruz will do. As we have seen with Wendy Davis, Rand Paul, and Cruz, one legislator (Is it really fair to call Cruz a legislator since he has proposed no legislating?) can hold up the process for a day. If Cruz does this, then we will end up with a government shutdown, as there will not be enough time to even have a vote and send the bill back to the House. The interesting part is that at that point, it would be even easier to blame the shutdown on the evangelical christian party of god. Press releases and news conferences would be held pointing to the fact that the Senate could not even vote on the CR because of this one Senator’s actions. So it is logical to assume that a rational person would not stage another filibuster.

I am not sure that Cruz is rational. After all, I referred to him as “Carnival Cruz” above. But I still think he will not filibuster. The reason is that it would hurt his brand. Cruz has rocketed to the top of the list of potential presidential candidates. He has ridden the wave of publicity he got by reading “Green Eggs and Ham”. The question is: Would he get the same benefits from another filibuster? I suspect not. I suspect there would be a “Is he doing this again?” reaction. Granted, the reaction would be limited to his less ardent supporters. His hard core supporters will of course support the effort, but it is very hard to win the presidency with only your core supporters. It is easier to win the nomination, but not by much.

So what will happen? My forecast is as follows. Harry Reid moves to take up the legislation. The Senate votes to remove the amendments and sends it back to the House. This will take longer than 1 day and so on Monday night, the government will shut down. What happens next and how long the shutdown lasts will depend on the polls. Specifically who gets the blame or credit for the shutdown. There are differing opinions on this. I believe that the blame, or credit, will be placed on the Tea Party wing of the evangelical christian party of god. I say blame or credit because in some circles this will be viewed as a great step forward. My prediction is the shutdown will last until October 17th — the day the debt ceiling has to be raised. At that point, a combined bill will be passed by a majority of Democrats and moderate Republicans. As a follow up, John Boehner will lose the Speakership as revenge from the Tea Party.

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  1. […] The Debt limit has been raised and the government has now been re-opened. This is exactly the way I predicted it would happen back on September 30th. […]

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